Even If It Is Small, The RMB Will Still Be In The Annual Depreciation.

In the fourth years after the resumption of RMB exchange rate reform, the RMB against the US dollar has finally changed its unilateral appreciation, and it is likely to have its first annual depreciation. In the first half of this year, with the rise of the middle price, the spot exchange rate of the renminbi once depreciated to 3.75%. After entering the June, the RMB exchange rate was revalued and the revaluation of the RMB exchange rate was gradually resumed by the stabilization of the economy (especially the foreign trade). In November 21st, the people's Bank of China announced the asymmetric rate cut, the pressure of RMB devaluation increased significantly. In November 24th, the first exchange day of the rate cut, the spot exchange rate dropped 168 basis points, which basically announced that the appreciation channel was closed.

Up to now, the spot exchange rate of RMB has been maintained at 6.13 to 6.14, which is still quite short from 6.05 at the beginning of this year. Today, the US dollar continues to strengthen and the Chinese economy returns to the downside. The central bank has announced interest rate cuts to deal with low inflation; in the remaining month, the RMB has a stronger momentum of appreciation, unable to fill the remaining space, and it seems to have been firmly on the dollar's annual depreciation. According to the current situation, the spot exchange rate of RMB may be reduced to 6.15, and the annual depreciation will exceed 1.6%. However, the depreciation rate of RMB is still controllable and slight compared with other major currencies which depreciate more than 10%.

In fact, due to pegging the US dollar, the effective exchange rate of RMB is still strong. Data released by the International Bank of clearing (BIS) show that the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB rose 1.5% to 121.57 in October, rising for a fifth consecutive month and a record high. The effective exchange rate index of BIS is based on the weight of trade data from 2008 to 2010 and is based on 2010. In the weight of the RMB index, the euro, the US dollar and the yen are the top three. The appreciation of the real effective exchange rate is more reflected in the passive appreciation of the renminbi in the case of the sharp depreciation of the euro and the yen. This also calls for the deepening of the RMB exchange rate reform. In the case of the revaluation of major international currencies, is it necessary for the RMB to be linked to the US dollar? A real exchange rate regime with reference to a basket of currencies is probably a strategy to deal with the current "exchange rate".

After the central bank announced its interest rate cut, the international market is expected to heat up the "competitive depreciation" of Asian currencies. Before that, the Japanese central bank also launched easing measures to support the Japanese economy as the Japanese economy plunged into recession in the latest quarter. At the end of last month, the BoJ had dramatically raised the size of its asset purchase plan amid controversy, and then triggered a decline in the yen against the US dollar. Today, China has joined the ranks of interest rate cuts. Affected by this, more countries with similar economic structure and export oriented policies may be forced to respond. Thailand, India and South Korea are the most likely countries to follow up. Under the trend of tightening monetary policy, the Fed will further strengthen the depreciation of non US currencies. dollar The pattern of appreciation. The phenomenon of low inflation and low economic growth will spread in Asia.

To break this hole, we need more in-depth Asian countries. cooperation 。 In particular, China, as the most notable engine of global economic growth in the past thirty years, should shoulder the responsibility of promoting the development of neighboring economies. This should not be regarded as a burden, but a major way to maintain external economic stability and stimulate external demand under the framework of globalization and economic integration in Asia. On the one hand, the Chinese leadership has taken action to start the concept from the Silk Road Fund, the BRIC bank and the Asian investment behavior carrier's Chinese version of the Marshall plan. However, persuading partners and implementing the plan to a specific project is still a good thing and needs careful consideration and calculation.

Focus on RMB exchange rate On the other hand, capital export requires RMB to maintain stability relative to major international currencies, giving users sufficient confidence. China's capital export needs to be promoted along with the internationalization of the RMB. From upstream commodity to terminal consumption, it needs to be included in the use of the renminbi, thus avoiding the failure of the internationalization of the Japanese yen. From this perspective, even if the renminbi adopts a devaluation strategy and strengthens exchange rate flexibility, its margin should also be limited. Correspondingly, domestic monetary easing also needs to obey the premise of the stability of the RMB exchange rate and avoid participating in the process of "competitive depreciation" as far as possible. It is not conducive to the medium and long term development of China's economy, nor can we go to the other extreme. The dollar is stronger and the renminbi is stronger than the US dollar, which is not in line with the law of economic development.