Three Ways To Balance Concussion Market

When the new year comes, we should sum up the past and look forward to the future.

First, look forward to the policy and economic environment of 2011.

In terms of international environment, economic data show that the probability of economic recovery in the United States is increasing, which means that the weakening pattern of the US dollar will not change in the medium term. Cyclical industries, especially commodity industries, will be stronger in the context of financial attribute expectations.

At home, it can be considered that the A share market will usher in a relatively favorable policy environment in the first quarter. The stock index rose significantly under the background of reasonable valuation and higher profit growth.

If the year-on-year data confirm that the economy is overheating in April and May next year, regulation will undoubtedly intensify, and even fiscal policy is difficult to be positive. Before that, it can still be relatively optimistic.

The decline of CPI will not be until after the second half of 2011, so there may be 2 additional interest rates in the next six months.

In the second half of the year, the economic stimulus policy will fall back to a robust policy. Under the background of the market's insipid background, the driving force of the market will be suppressed. As a whole, next year's policy and economic environment are destined to change the stock market in 2011. It can be judged that maintaining a large range of shocks and balancing the market pattern is in line with the economic situation in 2011.

Technical analysis, the Shanghai Composite Index's weekly K-line shows that 2010 is a complex year of rest, which is a continuation of the resumption of 2009 after the resumption of the big rebound. Its fluctuating space is at the highest point 3306 points to the lowest point 2319 points, and the lowest 2319 points just coincide with the 0.618 position of the golden section line since the 1664 point rebounded from 2009 to the highest point 3478 points in 2009.

Combined with the fundamentals of next year, the Shanghai Composite Index will regain its momentum or climb 3200 points after new year's day. Then there will be a continuous adjustment. The low point of next year's adjustment will be around 2600.

With the warmer recovery of the economy, the market will hit a 3500 point or even higher rebound at the end of the two quarter.

It was followed by a steady economic situation in the second half of the year and no surprises.

The overall rhythm is a large interval shock equilibrium market, its fluctuation space is between 2600 and 3500 o'clock.

In the 2011 investment strategy, we can follow three main ideas.

First, closely follow policy oriented and supported industrial investment opportunities, and focus on mining opportunities for emerging industries.

The general direction of the future development of the industry is low energy consumption, refinement and high added value. We should use low carbon technology to shape energy-saving society, pform traditional industries with new generation of information technology, and develop high-end equipment to enhance the added value.

The growth of strategic emerging industries and the pharmaceutical and consumer industries is worth long-term optimism and can be actively intervened in the callbacks.

Second, it will benefit from the upstream resource goods that are hot and tight next year.

Such as coal, nonferrous metals, chemical resources, building materials (cement, rebar) and so on, among which coking coal has the highest market recognition.

Third, next year, the real estate policy niche effect gradually weakened, in the second half of the second half if inflation downward, policy relaxation, real estate related cyclical industry is expected to usher in valuation repair market, suggested investors close attention to real estate sales changes, the second half of the real estate and related cyclical industry is likely to appear a big rebound.