July 18, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Zheng cotton below 19330 points

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20260 yuan / ton; 229 level 19394 yuan / ton; 328 level 18466 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17559 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 9730 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15050 yuan / ton; C32S price 25380 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 17 day, domestic cotton spot prices continued to rise slightly. At present, there has been no substantial change in cotton fundamentals. It is still oversupply, weak demand and policy support for purchasing and storage.

3. imported cotton: in July 17th, the price of China's main cotton imports rose generally, of which cotton and West African cotton rose 0.4-0.5 cents, and cotton and Brazil cotton rose more than 1 cents.

At present, there is no change in the fundamentals of market supply than demand, but the price of cotton has risen steadily, and cotton prices have been rising.

4. industrial inventory: as of July 9th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample survey enterprises was about 33.6 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), a decrease of 2.4 days, a decrease of 1 days compared with the same period in the past three years.

According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 757 thousand tons, a decrease of 6.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%, an average inventory reduction of 16.7% over the past three years.

5.ICE cotton: in July 16th, Fed chairman Bernanke said in his testimony that the US economy was still pessimistic, but did not convey a signal to launch a stimulus package that once brought down pressure on the commodity market, but most of the commodities recovered from the fall, especially the grain market continued to rise under the impact of dry and hot weather in the United States.

ICE futures failed to continue the rally, and plunged sharply under speculative selling, which basically sped up the first two trading days.

Summary:

At present, there is no substantial change in cotton fundamentals, and every upward rush of cotton will be obviously restricted by the fundamentals.

Since the beginning of June, Zheng cotton has gradually increased its focus of gravity, and at the same time, it faces 19650 pressures at the top. This position has been a strong pressure point for Zheng cotton recently, but it failed to go up.

On the operation, we may continue to use the idea of Interval Oscillation more than 19330 points.

[MEIKO futures] market re speculation industry policy oriented Zheng cotton down to see support

Overnight, in July 16th, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said that the US economy was still pessimistic in its testimony, but it did not convey the signal that it would launch economic stimulus measures. The news had once brought downward pressure on the commodity market, but most commodities recovered from the fall, especially the grain market continued to rise under the influence of dry weather in the United States.

And the US cotton failed to continue the rally. From the perspective of technology graphics, the December contract has not yet fallen below the 40 day moving average.

On the news side, the average import volume of cotton in 2003 and 2010 in 7 and August was 207 thousand tons and 221 thousand tons respectively, 2005 reached the maximum value, 7 and August 290 thousand tons and 286 thousand tons.

In the current year, the import of cotton imports showed a continuous "blowout" trend. The import volume in 7 and August is higher than the average level in the same period of the year. It may exceed 2005, and it is expected to be no less than 300 thousand tons.

The total import volume of cotton this year is expected to reach 5 million 300 thousand tons, a record high.

In the international market, in July 17th, the price of China's main imports of cotton imports generally rose, of which cotton and West African cotton rose 0.4-0.5 cents, and cotton and Brazil cotton rose more than 1 cents.

At present, there is no change in the fundamentals of market supply than demand, but the price of cotton has risen steadily, and cotton prices have been rising.

The cotton will remain oscillating in the market's wait-and-see.

Domestic market, 17, domestic cotton

Continue to rise slightly, there is no substantial change in cotton fundamentals, is still oversupply, weak demand and purchase and storage policy support.

From a time perspective, cotton prices are more subject to the purchase and storage of prices, Chen cotton digestion will determine the next stage of the market.

Spot quotation. In July 17th, the price of C/A cotton in the US was 91.95 (cents / pound), and the general trade port delivery price was 15426 yuan / ton (calculated according to the sliding tax). The Australian cotton quotation was 94.35, the general trade port delivery price was 15808 yuan / ton, the Uzbekistan cotton quotation was 93.30, the general trade port delivery price was 15649 yuan / ton, the India cotton quotation was 86.35, the general trade port delivery price was 14539 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index was 19410 yuan / ton, up 15 yuan; the B index was 18488 yuan, up 17 yuan.

Market analysis, the fundamentals of industry oversupply remain unchanged, but the market speculation on policy regulation has returned to the disk, which is expected to remain the same for the current year and the next year, so as to stir up market nerves and wait for the news to be clear.

Overnight cotton fell 3% during the ICE period, while Zheng cotton was concerned about the support of 19000-19300.

Short term trading is the main operation.

[Huaan futures] Zheng cotton oscillation pattern temporarily difficult to change

Key points:

1, IMF lowered China's economic growth expectations on Monday, warning of hard landing risks. Before that, the government announced that it would increase economic regulation in the second half of the year, and expected that the domestic economy would gradually pick up.

2, by the week of July 15th, the growth rate of cotton in the United States was 45%, and the growth of the United States and cotton was improved.

3, Citigroup lowered its estimated cotton price to 85 cents per pound in 2012, estimated to be 91 cents per pound, due to a relatively balanced supply and demand in the market.

4, India's domestic cotton has maintained its upward trend in the past month, and has played a supporting role in the international cotton price.

New York's July 17th cotton futures recorded the largest percentage decline in about a month on Tuesday, traders said. Traders said that because of speculative selling and profit taking, this is one of the few times that cotton has gained steady gains in recent weeks. ICE

The cotton contract in December dropped 2.25 cents, or 3%, at 71.05 cents per pound, the largest decline in June 21st and 70.79 to 73.40 cents in the trading range.

The fundamentals of the market cake have not improved much, especially the demand of the downstream textile enterprises is still weak, and the small and medium textile enterprises are almost always discontinued or limited production, and the export situation of textile and clothing is getting worse. The most important support from the demand is that the purchasing price of the new year is 20400. From the disk, the sluggish turnover and shrinking positions indicate that Zheng cotton has lost the attention of the market funds. The weak rise and fall is its reaction to the market's multi factor game. Under the support of the new year's reserve price, Zheng cotton's 1301 contract contract is likely to fluctuate in a narrow range and slowly raise its center of gravity to the storage and purchase price. Early comment: at present, in addition to the recent spot price stabilization, cotton

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton reduced its position in the background of widespread agricultural product callbacks. Overnight ICE cotton fell sharply by more than 3%. In view of the trend of late oscillation, investors maintained the idea of buying bargain.

In operation,

1301, if the opening can be reached near 19000, investors can establish long line and multiple orders. Otherwise, the opening price will be low and light warehouse will be tried more.