The Expectation Of Depreciation Is Rising, And Foreign Exchange Is Decreasing.

　　 Devaluation indicates "external occupation" tends to fall.

In April, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar set off a new downward trend. At the same time, the expectation of devaluation of the RMB has obviously increased in the market, which is reflected in the domestic and foreign markets.

With the expected depreciation of the renminbi, the market has also increased speculation about the decrease in external liquidity sources and the slowdown in foreign exchange growth. From the perspective of historical experience, the expectation of RMB devaluation is more closely related to the change of China's new foreign exchange holdings, that is, the expectation of depreciation is rising. For example, in the four quarter of 2008, the four quarter of 2011, the two or three quarter of 2012 and the two or three quarter of 2013, there was a rise in the expectation of RMB devaluation, a corresponding decline in foreign exchange growth and even negative growth.

　　 "Fine tune" escort mobility without worry

As one of the main channels for China's basic currency, foreign exchange occupation plays a vital role in the liquidity of our banking system and even the overall money supply. If the passive placement of foreign exchange is decreasing, the necessity of the central bank's initiative to put money will be raised accordingly.

From the perspective of a number of institutions, in the short and medium term, the "fine-tuning" means such as the open market and SLF are expected to take on more. money supply Tasks, the need to reduce the total amount of such measures is not enough.

First, in Steady growth Under the background of coexistence with structural adjustment, deleveraging and risk prevention, although monetary policy lacks the basis for a comprehensive relaxation, local micro stimulation is also necessary to maintain overall stability of banking system liquidity and ensure moderate growth in monetary and credit.

Secondly, May. Mobility Although foreign exchange and Financial deposits are under pressure, the impact is not necessarily as pessimistic as some organizations expect. Some research institutes have pointed out that with the internationalization of RMB, the external net payment scale of RMB has increased significantly since last year, which has led to a corresponding decline in demand for foreign exchange purchase by foreign trade enterprises, resulting in a passive growth in foreign exchange reserves, plus a further improvement in the export situation in the future. In addition, under the background of steady growth, the speed of fiscal investment may accelerate, and the impact of fiscal deposit growth may be less than expected.

Third, in May, the funds in the open market were over $500 billion. Even if the central bank did not consider the reverse repurchase, the liquidity of the funds maturing just now would be considerable.

Some agencies said that considering the factors of foreign exchange, fiscal deposits and the operation of the central bank's open market, the market liquidity adequacy situation is expected to continue in May, and the 7 day repo rate fluctuation interval is at 3%-4%.