2015 Of US Dollar: Or Usher In A Big Bull Market.

Under the situation of economic differentiation, the monetary policy of the major central banks of the world has also been diverged. In fact, the devaluation pressure of the renminbi also comes partly from the strength of the US dollar. The United States has ended the QE and is likely to start raising interest rates in mid 2015, while Europe and Japan are still moving forward. Easing policy On the main road, and monetary policy is likely to be more relaxed, most emerging markets, including China, are also facing pressure to ease monetary policy.

The difference in monetary policy directly leads to the widening of the real interest rate between the US dollar and other currencies, and the US dollar enjoys the advantage of increasing interest rates. Under the conditions of economic cycle and monetary policy cycle, the dollar is expected to usher in the third bull market since the breakup of Breton system.

And in China, foreign exchange It is a fact that the huge anticipated decline in funds is expected. By the end of 11, the figure was only 897 billion yuan, which was reduced by 1 trillion and 600 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2013. This has also become one of the important reasons for the tight liquidity in 2014 years.

The sharp contraction of foreign exchange is due to many factors. The main factors may include: 1) the RMB exchange rate is expected to be strongly reversed, and the settlement of foreign exchange is significantly reduced. At the same time, the central bank has gradually withdrawn from normalization, and the underlying currency has been substantially reduced. 2) foreign investment has increased significantly. Foreign exchange purchasing Larger scale.

It needs to be pointed out that the changes in these two factors will be trend. Even if the RMB rebounded in the 2015 year and brought about a rise in the volume of foreign exchange settlement, it would be very unrealistic to make foreign exchange payments back to the scale of 2013. Therefore, the liquidity pressure caused by the decrease in foreign exchange will still run through the whole year of 2015 years, and the supplement of external liquidity can not be expected.

For the time being, we need not be particularly worried about the impact of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. Perhaps the Fed's interest rate increase will lead to some outflow of capital, but capital controls and RMB interest rates still have comparative advantages, so that the impact of capital flight may be partial rather than global.