Although The Reserve Cotton Has Been Step-By-Step Out Of Business, The Auction Speed Is Still Slowing Down.

Zheng cotton disk rose sharply under the influence of no obvious news, especially after the main 1709 contract continued to drop nearly 1000 yuan / ton, and finally ushered in a trend of rebound.

From the analysis of various market factors, there is limited space for this rise, and the possibility of continuous sharp rebound is small.

At present, the cotton reserves are still step-by-step, and there is no major fluctuation in the volume of output or turnover.

According to the data from China's cotton network, as of July 31, 2017, 2016/2017 annual reserve cotton accumulated 2 million 79 thousand and 400 tons, of which 1 million 299 thousand and 300 tons of Xinjiang cotton and 780 thousand and 100 tons of real estate cotton.

Despite delays in rumours issued by reserve cotton, business slowdown

Speed, but overall turnover remains stable.

According to market professionals, the CotlookA index will be completed in August, and the CotlookA index will also be adjusted in the light of the difference between supply and demand in the old and new environment.

As of July 28th, the Cotlook index was 85 cents / pound, but the new flower CotllookA index was only 79.25 cents / pound, and the difference between the two was 5.75 cents / pound.

Since the reserve price is partly CotlookA index, and the weight is 50%, the reserve price of cotton reserve will be greatly decreased after the completion of the month change. The estimated decrease may be around 500 yuan / ton.

At present, the reserve price of the cotton auction is 15079 yuan / ton, and the reserve price of the reserve cotton auction will probably be around 14580 yuan / ton, which will be the lowest price since the 2016/17 cotton reserve has been put into operation. Such a sharp reduction of the bid price will have a certain impact on the market.

The latest monthly supply and demand report released by USDA shows that the global output of 2017/18 is expected to increase to 25 million 118 thousand tons in July, an increase of 138 thousand tons compared with the June estimate.

The estimated output of cotton in India is 6 million 314 thousand tons, an increase of 218 thousand tons compared with June.

Affected by this impact, the 2017/18 end of the year inventory is expected to be 19 million 318 thousand tons, an increase of 222 thousand tons compared with the estimated data in June.

Visible global market supply and demand loose, rising power is weak.

Of course, some people think that at present

Will continue to maintain a weak trend, the decline and rising space is limited, in the absence of obvious new profits or bad news release, the disk price will not drop too much, after all, there are tens of thousands of tons of warehouse receipts exist.

Therefore, under the influence of the monthly adjustment of CotlookA index, Zheng cotton has limited space for continuous rebound, and the possibility of concussion in the low range is expected to be larger.

In July,

The market is even lighter, the price of cotton yarn is stable, orders are reduced, inventories of enterprises are increased, and the situation of credit picking up has increased.

A sample survey of the national cotton market monitoring system showed that as of July 10th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample survey enterprises was about 31.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days, a decrease of 2.5 days compared with the same period last year.

The yarn production and sales rate was 95.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points over the same period last year, 3.4 percentage points lower than the average level in the past three years, and a 16.7 day sales volume of 1.8 days, an increase of 4.3 days compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 2.2 days compared with the average level of nearly three years (such as chart 7).

The production and sale rate of cloth was 94.4%, and the annulus ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the same period last year, 4 percentage points higher than the average level of nearly three years, and 43.6 days of inventory sales, a reduction of 2.7 days, an increase of 3.8 days from the same period, an increase of 4.1 days over the average level of nearly three years.

The traditional off-season of textile industry is coming to an end in August. It is expected that the trend of market demand will gradually improve compared with the trend of 6 and July.

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