After The "Hot Wind" Blow, The Rise Of Polyester Filament Is Afraid Of A Flash In The Pan.

"This year is a year of witnessing history," more and more friends have put this phrase on the lips. 2020 is indeed an extraordinary year. We have witnessed too many possibilities. This week polyester has also seen a large scale of market agitation. The reasons behind it lie in the improvement of the macro level and the stimulation of weaving super orders.

As for the epidemic, the economic activities in the early stage are stagnant, and with most governments lifting the ban and lifting the ban on the agenda, consumption will rekindle hope. In addition, crude oil prices once experienced the shuffle of negative oil prices, and once again welcomed a staged rebound, which has a positive effect on the price of polyester.

More importantly, on the basis of macro improvement, rumors of super orders in the downstream weaving market further stimulated the market to become stronger.

But can the strong polyester market really play a role in this market?

1, the improvement of domestic industry orders is based on two aspects: first, the size of cake (market), followed by how to divide cake (market).

The fermentation of public health incidents has brought unprecedented challenges to the entire textile industry. In March, when factories resumed work together, it was found that consumption demand at home and abroad was not expected to recover after the Spring Festival. Instead, the demand for orders was less than 50% in the same period last year, especially in the case of foreign epidemics. A large number of foreign trade to domestic demand, but we all understand that foreign trade and domestic demand is like a person's legs, now walking on one leg, how can we walk well.

From the recent news, Europe and the United States will soon release the seal, which means that the previously frozen consumption channels will resume. But this does not mean that orders will reappear, and more depends on consumers' consumption ability and consumption intention. However, economic stagnation has also brought economic burden to residents, and textile and clothing consumption will remain weak. In addition, the development of the epidemic situation is still unknown.

2, the epidemic has been fermented to the world, and the US stock market has experienced four fuses, crude oil price -37.63 US dollars / barrel for 10 days, and the industry market has fallen to the lowest level in history.

In the past two months, the price of melt blown fabric in China has been fluctuating like the roller coaster: from the 18 thousand / ton before the epidemic to 520 thousand / ton in the spot, it dropped to 150 thousand / ton, rebounded to the highest 700 thousand, and finally reappeared. And the wind of the respirator was also blown to the side of the chemical fiber material. In the middle of April, the demand for masks and ear belts increased. The nylon DTY70D/24F yarn rose from 14500 yuan per ton to 20000-21000 yuan per ton, or 44%. It's very difficult for small masks to pull the market. The market blowout is a flash in the pan, just 10 Yu Tian time, this hot wind has blown over. Today, the nylon yarn factory can only deliver the previous orders, and then it is hard to meet the "prosperity" of grabbing goods the other day.

This is the result of the manipulation of a large market economy. Melt blown fabrics and nylon yarns are a microcosm of price fluctuations, mapping the trend of related products' price reduction, and will soon be fully transmitted to the downstream. I believe this is inevitable in the later stage. Today, the protective clothing fabric is booming through the epidemic economy. With the increasing temperature of the chemical fiber protective clothing fabrics, the phenomenon of bottom hunting, Stockpiling and selling is now appearing in the market of polyester taffeta and spring Asia textile. 210T polyester taff price also ushered in a wave of rise, the 24 day market average price of 0.88 yuan / m, 25 days has risen to 0.92 yuan / m, the low price has basically disappeared.

But textile bosses are also worried about the unexpected situation, reflecting that although customers have orders of 8 million meters on hand, they only dare to receive 4 million meters, for fear that the wind will come quickly and go quickly. After all, everything is full of uncertainties. If the peripheral capacity comes up, the market will easily be crushed.

The ideal is very rich, the reality is very skinny.

In 2020, it was over 1/3. In the first half of the year, many businessmen have already given up. In the three or four quarter, can the market of "golden nine silver ten" be expected? At present, the market is in a dilemma, cost support is insufficient, terminal demand is general, then in May, the field has indicated that it can recuperate. The impact of the cost side is not enough to stimulate the market, and the ups and downs of prices are not so important. In Europe and other countries, the epidemic trend is slowing down, and many countries are still cautious about the lifting of the ban. If the foreign trade has not been lifted, the domestic production and marketing will not be optimistic, and the order reduction will continue.

Now the ideal is plump, and the reality must be steady and steady. Since everyone is bearing heavy loads, we have survived all this in the boat, which is full of gratification and a bright future.