"Pork Freedom" Is Expected To Be Realized With The Continuous Increase In The Number Of Live Pigs Before The Festival

In order to increase market supply, the eighth batch of central reserve frozen pork was put into operation on February 4. Subsequently, on February 9, the ninth batch of frozen pork from the central reserve will also be put into the market, with a total of 60000 tons of pork.

In fact, on December 17, 2020, the first batch of 20000 tons of central reserve frozen pork was put on the market, and the transaction situation was good. Since then, it has been put into operation continuously at the rhythm of 20000-30000 tons per week. Up to now, the state has organized seven batches of central reserve frozen pork to be put into operation, with an accumulated amount of 180000 tons.

Under the guidance of the national development and Reform Commission, various localities have also organized and carried out linkage investment in combination with the situation of local people's new year's Eve and increasing consumer demand. At present, a large number of frozen pork to be put into the central reserve has been "on the road", and will continue to be put into the market after the Spring Festival and during the "two sessions" period, so as to ensure the market supply continuously. The state and local governments put in reserve meat, not only increased the market supply, but also played a role in guiding market entities to increase pork supply, and promoted the stable decline of market price.

As of the fourth week of 2021, according to cofeed, the slaughter volume of major monitored slaughtering enterprises in China was 1745835, an increase of 7386 heads, or 0.42%, compared with 1738449 last week. This week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 20.88%, 0.09% higher than that of 20.79% last week.

In this regard, Ruida futures agricultural products group Wang Cuibing pointed out that with the gradual recovery of pig production capacity, the tight supply situation has been improving. "The central government has continuously put in reserve frozen pork to guide the downward trend of pig prices. In addition, African swine plague is frequent in some regions, and some pig sources are panic marketing at the breeding end, and some pig sources impact the market, and the farmers hold pessimistic expectations for the future market, and have high enthusiasm for marketing. The overall market supply of pigs is relatively sufficient, and slaughtering enterprises are not difficult to collect pigs and have strong willingness to lower prices. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, there is a demand for goods at the terminal, and the demand for pork is slightly increased, which forms a support for the price of pigs. "

First up and then down

Pork prices have risen from November 2020 to the end of January 2021, up nearly 18%.

From the perspective of weekly price, the price of pig increased from 29.70 yuan / kg in the fourth week of November 2020 to 36.01 yuan / kg in the third week of January 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and the month on month increase dropped to 0.1% from 3% at the end of December 2020.

According to the analysis of Huatai Futures Co., Ltd. and the Red Army of Normal University, meat is easy to be stored in cold winter weather, which contributes to the rise of short-term consumption. This year, the domestic cold air is stronger, and the overall temperature of the country is lower, so meat is easier to be stored in cold weather, so it will affect the increase of pork consumption.

Secondly, in recent years, imported pork is an important way of domestic pork supply, and the reduction of cold chain food frozen meat import will also lead to the rise of pork price. Since November last year, there have been many accidents in the packaging of imported cold chain food, and pork accounts for a large part of these products, which has affected the import and export of many frozen food markets. According to the public data, the average monthly import of pork in the second and third quarters of 2020 will be 390000 tons, which will fall to 330000 tons from October to November; aquatic products will also drop from 400000 tons in the second quarter to about 290000 tons.

"The cold wave will also have an impact on the purchasing intention of the slaughtering industry, and further on the transportation and transportation of pig products. Under the influence of cold wave weather, it is more difficult for slaughtering enterprises to purchase pigs; at the same time, there is a stage bottleneck in pig distribution and transportation in some southern regions, and the purchasing cost of terminal slaughtering enterprises is rising, and the phenomenon of increasing price and quantity has increased Fan Hongjun continued to analyze.

However, it is worth noting that pork prices began to show a downward trend after the performance in the past two months was significantly higher than the seasonality and market expectations.

Boa Hexun data showed that the national pig price continued to decline at the end of January, with the national average price close to 34 yuan / kg. Specifically, the average price of the three yuan pig was 34.06 yuan / kg, down 4.62% month on month. The average price of piglets was 83.94 yuan / kg, down 0.36% month on month. The price of white striped pig was 44.52 yuan / kg, down 4.38% month on month. The profit of self breeding was 2118.61 yuan / head, down 8.37% month on month; the profit of outsourcing aquaculture was 595.60 yuan / head, down 23.23% month on month.

Fan Hongjun pointed out that the pig price before the festival may be mainly concussion downward. "Pig disease has been rising all over the world recently, and some pig farms even need to be cleaned up. Therefore, the number of live pigs under 90 kg at the breeding end has increased, and the large-scale enterprises are speeding up the marketing under the current high price. The purchasing of slaughtering enterprises is relatively smooth, and they continue to purchase at a lower price. Consumption is still tepid, downstream facing high meat prices is still on demand procurement, Spring Festival stock is not as good as in previous years. In terms of policy, the supply of reserve meat continued at the level of 30000 tons / week, and the market regulation signal was obvious. "

"Pork freedom"

China's current pig production capacity recovery continued to improve. In the case of sufficient supply, the price of pork will gradually decrease.

By the end of 2020, the number of live pigs in China was 406.5 million, returning to 92.1% of the normal year (2017), and the number of reproducible sows was 41.61 million, double that of the end of 2019, and the recovery momentum of pig production was good.

Muyuan shares, Wen's shares, Zhengbang technology and new hope have already occupied the first echelon of pig marketing. In 2020, muyuan shares will produce 18.114 million pigs, Wen 9.5457 million pigs, Zhengbang group 9.5595 million pigs and new hope 8.2925 million pigs. From the data of these pig enterprises, the growth of pig production capacity in China is steady and orderly.

Taking muyuan shares as an example, as of the end of November, the total number of live pigs on hand was about 22 million, and it is expected that the number of sows that can be bred by the end of the year will reach about 2.6 million. In addition, the relevant personnel of muyuan shares also said that the company has reserved more than 80 million land corresponding to pig production capacity. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the production capacity will reach about 50 million. The plan of pig marketing in 2021 depends on the construction and delivery of pig farms in 2020. "The expansion of the company's production capacity shows a momentum of increasing quarterly, and the volume of sales from 2021 to 2022 is expected to increase."

At the same time, Zhengbang technology expects the company to produce 25 million pigs in 2021; new hope also said that the target of 25 million pigs in 2021 will remain unchanged.

Hu Yanhong, a macro researcher at Yingda securities, said: "in the first half of 2021, the number of live pigs on the market will increase significantly. The price of pork is expected to continue to decline, and pork consumption should have more solid protection."

On the other hand, China is the world's largest meat producer, consumer and importer. The growth of domestic pig production capacity can boost the pork price into the downward channel, and trade import is also one of the factors that can not be ignored in the domestic pig market. After all, imported pork will further accelerate the decline of pork price.

Since the outbreak of African swine fever, the import of pork in China has been increasing year by year. According to the data, in 2018, the total pork import volume reached 1.196 million tons, and in 2019, the total pork import volume reached 2.108 million tons, an increase of 915000 tons compared with the same period in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 76.7%. In 2020, the cumulative import of pork reached 4.39 million tons, an increase of 2.282 million tons compared with the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 108.3%.

Su Wanli, an analyst at zhuduo.com, pointed out: "if the epidemic situation gradually improves in 2021, the injection volume of imported meat will continue to increase, which will undoubtedly bring greater downward pressure on domestic pig prices. Moreover, the increase of imported meat will also stimulate farmers' psychology of selling pigs at reduced prices, and the price of pork will naturally fall to a certain extent. "

"In addition, without the influence of external factors such as African swine fever, China's pig stock will return to the normal level in the second quarter of 2021. According to the pig breeding cycle of 4-5 months, the pig supply will gradually reach the normal level in the third and fourth quarters, and the downward inflection point of pig price will gradually appear, and the pig price high point of 40 yuan / kg may become history. " So said Su Wanli.