Distributed Photovoltaic Accelerates The Opening Of Trillion Market

Recently, the National Energy Administration issued the "notice on the county roof distributed photovoltaic development pilot program" (hereinafter referred to as the "notice") in the industry outflow, causing widespread concern.

According to the documents revealed, the government will provide policy support for distributed photovoltaic from various aspects. The large-scale promotion of the industry is also conducive to the entry of advantageous central enterprises and state-owned enterprises. After the market growth space is opened, the development pattern of the industry may also change.

Affected by this, on June 24, the photovoltaic building integration plate of tonghuashun increased by 8.15%, ranking first among all sectors.

Distributed photovoltaic County wide promotion policy issued by many provinces

In the notice, the State Energy Administration pointed out that in order to accelerate the development of roof distributed photovoltaic, it is planned to organize the whole county (city, district) to promote the development of roof distributed photovoltaic.

The pilot areas should have a variety of conditions, including rich roof resources, high enthusiasm for development and utilization, good power consumption capacity, basic implementation of market development theme and strength to promote the construction of pilot projects.

In the pilot application conditions, the notice also makes requirements on the proportion of photovoltaic power generation installed on the roofs of buildings with different properties in the pilot application area. Among them, the proportion of photovoltaic power generation that can be installed in the total roof area of Party and government organs shall not be less than 50%; The total roof area of public buildings such as schools, hospitals and village committees can be installed at least 40%; The roof of industrial and commercial workshops shall not be less than 30%; The roof of rural residents should not be less than 20%.

In addition, the notice also proposes that the power grid enterprises in pilot counties (cities and districts) should strengthen the upgrading and transformation of distribution networks, effectively guarantee the large-scale access demand of distributed photovoltaic in pilot areas, and achieve the goal of "receiving as much as possible", and the grid enterprises should guarantee the grid connection and consumption of distributed photovoltaic in the pilot areas; We should encourage local governments to innovate policies and measures, and provide support by means of financial subsidies and integration of funds for rural revitalization projects.

Since May, Fujian, Shandong, Shaanxi and other provinces have issued policies to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic throughout the county.

On June 2 this year, Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, proposed to implement the pilot work of promoting the large-scale development of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county in accordance with the requirements of "suitable for construction and construction, integration of optical storage, government and enterprise cooperation, diversified investment, subsidy and retirement, credit support, revision and standardization, convenient access to the network, network reform and reform, safety and beauty".

50 million rural homestead roofs can be developed

Distributed photovoltaic (DVP) refers to the photovoltaic power generation facilities built near the user's site, whose operation mode is self-use on the user's side and the surplus electricity is connected to the grid, and the distribution system is balanced and regulated. It follows the principles of adjusting measures to local conditions, clean and efficient, decentralized layout and nearby utilization, which can make full use of local solar energy resources, replace and reduce the consumption of fossil energy.

Distributed photovoltaic has the characteristics of small output power, low pollution and outstanding environmental protection benefits. It can be built in rural areas, pastoral areas, mountainous areas and commercial areas of large, medium and small cities. To some extent, it can alleviate the power shortage in local areas and realize the coexistence of power generation and power consumption.

The National Energy Administration pointed out in the notice that domestic building roof resources are rich and widely distributed, and the development and construction of roof distributed photovoltaic has great potential. To carry out the whole county (city, district) to promote the roof distributed photovoltaic construction is conducive to the integration of resources to achieve intensive development, to reduce the peak load of power, to save and optimize the investment in distribution network, and to guide the residents' green energy consumption. It is an important measure to realize the two major national strategies of "carbon peak, carbon neutral" and Rural Revitalization.

Debang Securities pointed out in the research report that since the promotion of distributed photovoltaic work in the whole county is under the overall guidance of the government, the demand is expected to be more rigid, and it will be supported in the aspects of filing, construction and grid connection. Meanwhile, with the gradual promotion of the pilot work, it is expected to drive the explosive development of distributed photovoltaic.

Guosheng Securities pointed out that if the roof distributed photovoltaic system is widely used in the future, the demand for new distribution network will increase and the order volume is expected to increase; Distribution network construction enterprises can actively tap the owner's demand for distributed photovoltaic construction and develop new business growth points of distributed photovoltaic construction.

According to the calculation of CITIC Securities, the market space of household photovoltaic is more than 1 trillion yuan: according to the calculation of about 100 million self built roofs of rural residential sites in China, 50% of which can be developed, and 5-10kw of household installed capacity, the potential market scale of domestic PV typical scenarios is about 250-500gw, while the proportion of developed scale is only about 10%. The promotion of the whole county distributed mode is expected to accelerate the development of hundreds of GW household distributed photovoltaic market in China.

In addition, the development and implementation of distributed photovoltaic projects in the whole county are also limited by the capacity of local transformers and power grid accommodation capacity, especially in rural areas, which are the main domestic household photovoltaic market. Therefore, CITIC Securities pointed out that the distributed development of the whole county is also expected to accelerate the growth of supporting demand such as energy storage on the power side and upgrading of rural power grid.

Peng Peng, Secretary General of China new energy power investment and financing alliance, wrote an article, pointing out that Shandong has always been one of the core areas of the power grid. Before, it was very difficult for the distributed photovoltaic market-oriented transaction to land in Shandong; However, on June 7, the draft of opinions on promoting the high-quality development of renewable energy in Shandong Province clearly put forward four words of "selling electricity by partition wall", which shows the great determination of the government.

Peng Peng pointed out that the notice requires all localities to submit to the national energy administration before July 15, so the time is very tight and it is not easy to realize the real project implementation in a short period of time; However, in the long run, the growth space has been opened, and the next step is to see how the power grid can support the development of distributed systems.

A good opportunity for state owned assets

Previously, due to the low scale effect and difficult management of distributed photovoltaic, most of them were developed and constructed by private enterprises; With the development of the "whole county" development mode, central enterprises and state-owned enterprises with strong advantages also have a good opportunity to enter the Bureau.

According to the analysis of Everbright Securities Research Report, large-scale promotion of distributed photovoltaic construction is not only conducive to the realization of resource intensive development, but also conducive to the implementation of grid connected consumption; Large scale promotion is conducive to the central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private leaders with resource and capital advantages to enter the distributed development market, integrate resources and improve market concentration.

Deppon Securities pointed out that from the documents issued by various places, the mode of government enterprise cooperation is basically encouraged; From the perspective of government management, due to the small scale and wide distribution of distributed photovoltaic power stations, and the difficulty in management and operation and maintenance, it is expected that cooperation with state-owned enterprises, central enterprises or large-scale private enterprises will be more likely, and the development mode dominated by private enterprises is expected to change.

In recent years, the trend of joint efforts of photovoltaic enterprises is obvious. Leading enterprises of first-line photovoltaic modules have signed strategic cooperation agreements with large energy groups, which is expected to benefit fully.

Guosheng Securities pointed out that after the distributed photovoltaic power generation is connected to the distribution network, the distribution system will change from the original single power distribution role to a new type of power exchange system integrating the collection, transmission and distribution of electric energy, bringing about the upgrading of distribution network function and investment.

Soochow Securities pointed out that large central enterprises have unique advantages in government endorsement, brand, loan interest rate, local bank resources and government resources. Combined with local private enterprises with experience to carry out distributed project development, it is expected that the promotion speed of distributed photovoltaic will be greatly accelerated and the penetration of distributed photovoltaic will be accelerated（ Cao Enhui, a reporter of the 21st century economic report, also contributed to this article.)