Market Observation: Data Analysis On The Adjustment Trend Of Cotton Price Shocks In The Domestic Market Affected By The Environment

In March 2025, the domestic cotton price will be adjusted by shocks, and the trend of international cotton price will be stronger than that of domestic cotton. In March, the price of domestic yarn will fall back, while the imported yarn will continue to fall in the same period. According to the data released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee in March, the global cotton production and consumption in 2024/25 both increased month on month, and the ending inventory rose slightly. Since the middle of March, there has been no obvious improvement in the demand side of the cotton yarn market. Affected by the limited number of new orders, the overall trading atmosphere in the near future has been flat, and the overall market sentiment is cautious.

　 1、 Supply and demand

（1） Increase in global cotton production and consumption

According to the data released by the International Cotton Advisory Council (ICAC) in March 2025, the global cotton initial inventory in 2024/25 will be 18.61 million tons, an increase of 50000 tons month on month and a decrease of 910000 tons year on year; The output was 25.69 million tons, an increase of 140000 tons month on month and 1.57 million tons year on year; The consumption was 25.53 million tons, an increase of 110000 tons month on month and 570000 tons year on year; The ending inventory was 18.78 million tons, an increase of 90000 tons month on month and 170000 tons year on year; The inventory consumption ratio at the end of the period was 73.56%, up 0.4 percentage points month on month and down 10 percentage points year on year.

（2） The cotton sales in this year are faster than that of last year, and the yarn output increases year on year

According to the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons (predicted by the national cotton market monitoring system in January 2025), as of March 27, the country had accumulated 6.676 million tons of seed cotton to lint cotton, an increase of 773000 tons year on year; The cumulative sales of seed cotton converted into lint cotton was 6.673 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 778000 tons; The cumulative processing of lint was 6.647 million tons, an increase of 765000 tons year on year, and the processing rate was 99.6%, down 0.1 percentage point year on year; The cumulative sales of lint was 4.113 million tons, an increase of 775000 tons on a year-on-year basis, with a sales rate of 61.6%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points on a year-on-year basis.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to February 2025, China's spinning output will be 3.415 million tons, an increase of 51000 tons or 1.5% year on year; From September 2024 to February 2025, China's total spinning output will be 11.6095 million tons, an increase of 666000 tons or 6.1% year on year.

　 2、 Import and export trade

（1） China

1. China's cotton import

In February 2025, China imported 115500 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 179000 tons, or 60.8%. From September 2024 to February 2025, China's cotton imports will be 731800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.001 million tons, or 57.8% (Figure 1).

From September 2024 to February 2025, the main source countries of China's cotton imports are: Brazil (359000 tons, accounting for 49.1%), Australia (176000 tons, accounting for 24%), the United States (106000 tons, accounting for 14.5%), Kazakhstan (32000 tons, accounting for 4.3%), Turkey (18000 tons, accounting for 2.4%), Burkina Faso (7000 tons, accounting for 0.9%), Mexico (6000 tons, accounting for 0.9%), Sudan (6000 tons, accounting for 0.8%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are: Australia (+12%), Brazil (+6%), Kazakhstan (+2%), Burkina Faso (+0.5%), Mexico (+0.3%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are: the United States (- 13.4%), Sudan (- 0.9%), Turkey (- 0.7%) (Figure 2).

2. China's cotton yarn import

In February 2025, China imported 115000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 3000 tons or 2.7% year on year. From September 2024 to February 2025, China's cotton yarn import will be 721300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 181000 tons, or 20.1%.

From September 2024 to February 2025, China's cotton yarn imports mainly come from Vietnam (405000 tons, accounting for 56.1%), Pakistan (97000 tons, accounting for 13.4%), Malaysia (46000 tons, accounting for 6.4%), India (44000 tons, accounting for 6.1%), Bangladesh (43000 tons, accounting for 6%), and Uzbekistan (35000 tons, accounting for 4.8%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Vietnam (+11.8%), Malaysia (+2.6%) and Bangladesh (+2.1%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are India (- 7.9%), Uzbekistan (- 4.6%) and Pakistan (- 4.1%).

3. China's clothing export

In February 2025, China's clothing exports will reach US $6.39 billion, a year-on-year decrease of US $2.67 billion or 29.5%. From September 2024 to February 2025, China's clothing exports reached US $73.201 billion, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of US $580 million, or 0.8%.

From September 2024 to February 2025, the main destinations of China's clothing exports are: the United States (US $16.93 billion, accounting for 23.1%), the European Union (US $11.9 billion, accounting for 16.3%), Japan (US $5.6 billion, accounting for 7.7%), South Korea (US $3.54 billion, accounting for 4.8%), Kyrgyzstan (US $2.56 billion, accounting for 3.5%), the United Kingdom (US $2.41 billion, accounting for 3.3%), Kazakhstan (US $2.26 billion, accounting for 3.1%), Australia (US $2.25 billion, accounting for 3.1%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: the United States (+3%), the European Union (+1.2%), and the United Kingdom (+0.2%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decrease in export proportion are Kazakhstan (- 1.7%), Australia (- 0.4%), Japan (- 0.4%) and Kyrgyzstan (- 0.2%).

（2） United States

1. American cotton export

In January 2025, the United States exported 226000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 32000 tons or 12.3%. From September 2024 to January 2025, the US cotton export will be 787300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 61000 tons, or 7.1%.

From September 2024 to January 2025, the main destinations of American cotton exports are Pakistan (190000 tons, accounting for 24.1%), Vietnam (115000 tons, accounting for 14.6%), China (83000 tons, accounting for 10.5%), Mexico (54000 tons, accounting for 6.8%), Turkey (46000 tons, accounting for 5.8%), India (43000 tons, accounting for 5.5%), Bangladesh (36000 tons, accounting for 4.5%), and Hong Kong, China (29000 tons, accounting for 3.7%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: Pakistan (+15.8%), India (+4.2%), Vietnam (+4%), Turkey (+2.5%), Mexico (+2%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 30.3%), Hong Kong (- 2.6%) and Bangladesh (- 2.4%).

2. American clothing imports

In January 2025, US clothing imports reached US $7.57 billion, an increase of US $1.24 billion or 19.6% year on year. From September 2024 to January 2025, US clothing imports reached US $37.159 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of US $5.13 billion, or 16%.

From September 2024 to January 2025, the main sources of clothing imports from the United States are: China (US $8.31 billion, accounting for 22.4%), Vietnam (US $7.01 billion, accounting for 18.9%), Bangladesh (US $3.46 billion, accounting for 9.3%), Indonesia (US $2.07 billion, accounting for 5.6%), India (US $2.05 billion, accounting for 5.5%), Cambodia (US $1.92 billion, accounting for 5.2%), Mexico (US $1.15 billion, accounting for 3.1%), Pakistan (US $1.03 billion, 2.8%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Bangladesh (+1%), Cambodia (+0.7%), Vietnam (+0.6%), Indonesia (+0.4%), India (+0.4%) and Pakistan (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are China (- 0.7%) and Mexico (- 0.4%).

（3） Japanese clothing imports

In February 2025, Japan's clothing imports reached 1.64 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 150 million US dollars, or 8.4%. From September 2024 to February 2025, Japan's clothing imports reached US $12.148 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of US $50 million, or 0.4%.

From September 2024 to February 2025, the main destinations of Japan's clothing imports are: China (US $5.87 billion, accounting for 48.3%), Vietnam (US $2.27 billion, accounting for 18.7%), Cambodia (US $730 million, accounting for 6%), Bangladesh (US $720 million, accounting for 6%), Myanmar (US $640 million, accounting for 5.3%), Italy (US $510 million, accounting for 4.2%), Indonesia (US $360 million, accounting for 3%), Thailand (US $180 million, 1.5%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Cambodia (+1%), Bangladesh (+0.7%), Vietnam (+0.7%) and Thailand (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 1.9%), Indonesia (- 0.4%), Myanmar (- 0.1%).

（4） EU clothing import

In January 2025, EU clothing imports reached US $8.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of US $1.73 billion, or 25.3%. From September 2024 to January 2025, EU clothing imports reached US $41.769 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of US $5.76 billion, or 16%.

From September 2024 to January 2025, the main sources of EU clothing imports are: China (US $12.88 billion, accounting for 30.8%), Bangladesh (US $8.84 billion, accounting for 21.2%), Turkey (US $4.13 billion, accounting for 9.9%), Cambodia (US $2.15 billion, accounting for 5.1%), Vietnam (US $2.07 billion, accounting for 4.9%), Pakistan (US $1.72 billion, accounting for 4.1%), India (US $1.59 billion, accounting for 3.8%), Morocco ($1.18 billion, 2.8%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are Bangladesh (+2.4%), China (+1.5%), Cambodia (+0.8%), Pakistan (+0.2%), India (+0.2%) and Vietnam (+0.1%); Countries or regions with a year-on-year decrease in import proportion are Turkey (- 2%) and Morocco (- 0.2%).

（5） India

1. Indian cotton import

In December 2024, India imported 73500 tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 65000 tons, or 716.7%. From September to December 2024, India imported 284100 tons of cotton, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 240000 tons and a cumulative year-on-year growth of 550.2%.

From September to December 2024, the main source countries of Indian cotton imports are: Australia (84000 tons, accounting for 29.7%), Brazil (40000 tons, accounting for 14%), the United States (38000 tons, accounting for 13.4%), Mali (19000 tons, accounting for 6.7%), Switzerland (17000 tons, accounting for 5.9%), Cote d'Ivoire (13000 tons, accounting for 4.7%), Singapore (10000 tons, accounting for 3.5%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose import proportion increased year on year are: Brazil (+11%), Australia (+8.4%), Mali (+5.1%), Cote d'Ivoire (+4%), Switzerland (+3.4%); The countries or regions whose import proportion decreased year on year are the United States (- 4%) and Singapore (- 0.2%).

2. Indian cotton export

In December 2024, India exported 34600 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 3000 tons or 8.9%. From September to December 2024, India's cotton export will be 89900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 29000 tons, or 24.6%.

From September to December 2024, the main export destinations of Indian cotton are Bangladesh (82000 tons, accounting for 91.1%), Vietnam (4000 tons, accounting for 4.6%), Indonesia (2000 tons, accounting for 2.5%), and China (1000 tons, accounting for 0.7%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are Bangladesh (+14.6%), Indonesia (+0.4%) and Thailand (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are China (- 9.4%) and Vietnam (- 3.9%).

3. Indian cotton yarn export

In December 2024, India exported 102400 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 5000 tons or 4.7% year on year. From September to December 2024, India's cotton yarn export will be 379000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 30000 tons, or 7.4%.

From September to December 2024, the main export destinations of Indian cotton yarn are Bangladesh (201000 tons, accounting for 53.1%), China (33000 tons, accounting for 8.7%), Peru (21000 tons, accounting for 5.4%), Egypt (17000 tons, accounting for 4.4%), Vietnam (15000 tons, accounting for 4.1%), and Sri Lanka (8000 tons, accounting for 2.2%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are Bangladesh (+6.6%), Peru (+1.8%) and Sri Lanka (+0.1%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 5.9%), Egypt (- 0.8%), Vietnam (- 0.4%).

（6） Australian cotton exports

In January 2025, Australia exported 37600 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 13000 tons, or 25.1%. From September 2024 to January 2025, Australia's cotton exports will be 531000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 87000 tons, or 14.1%.

From September 2024 to January 2025, the main export destinations of Australian cotton are Vietnam (140000 tons, accounting for 26.5%), China (134000 tons, accounting for 25.3%), India (73000 tons, accounting for 13.7%), Bangladesh (70000 tons, accounting for 13.2%), Indonesia (49000 tons, accounting for 9.3%), and Malaysia (19000 tons, accounting for 3.5%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: India (+13.1%); Countries or regions with year-on-year decrease in export proportion are: Vietnam (- 9.8%), Indonesia (- 1.5%), China (- 1.4%), Malaysia (- 0.6

（7） Brazilian cotton exports

In February 2025, Brazil exported 274600 tons of cotton, an increase of 16000 tons or 6.4% year on year. From September 2024 to February 2025, Brazil's cotton export will be 1.7931 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 268000 tons and a cumulative year-on-year growth of 17.6%.

From September 2024 to February 2025, the main export destinations of Brazilian cotton are: China (394000 tons, accounting for 22%), Vietnam (355000 tons, accounting for 19.8%), Pakistan (307000 tons, accounting for 17.1%), Bangladesh (235000 tons, accounting for 13.1%), Turkey (159000 tons, accounting for 8.9%), India (115000 tons, accounting for 6.4%), Indonesia (99000 tons, accounting for 5.5%), Malaysia (41000 tons, accounting for 2.3%).

Among them, the countries or regions whose export proportion increased year on year are: Pakistan (+14.7%), Vietnam (+7.8%), India (+6.4%), Turkey (+4.3%), Bangladesh (+3.9%), Indonesia (+1.1%), Malaysia (+0.5%); The countries or regions whose export proportion decreased year on year are: China (- 41%).

　　 3、 Macroeconomy

（1） Global macro overview

In February 2025, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) will rise on a month on month basis, and the trend of PMI in major economies will diverge. Among them, the PMI in China, Japan and the euro area will rise on a month on month basis, while the PMI in the United States will decline on a month on month basis.

In March 2025, the PMI index released by the National Bureau of Statistics was 50.5, up 0.3 percentage points month on month, and the Caixin China PMI index released by Caixin on behalf of SMEs was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points month on month (Figure 26).

In February 2025, the clothing producer price index (PPI) published by the National Bureau of Statistics was - 0.2% year on year, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage point more than that of the previous month. The clothing consumer price index (CPI) in the same period was+1.2% year on year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage point more than that of the previous month.

（2） Domestic financial market

In March 2025, the medium-term lending rate in the Shanghai interbank market will rise steadily month on month, while short-term and long-term interest rates will decline month on month. On March 31, the three-month interbank offered rate in Shanghai was 1.912%, up 1.0 basis points from the end of February.

In March 2025, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly. On March 31, the central parity rate of US dollar against RMB was 7.1782, 44 basis points lower than that at the end of February (Figure 29

（3） Global commodity price trend

In March 2025, global commodity prices will bounce back. As of March 31, the CRB index, which represents the trend of global commodity prices, closed at 309.3, up 2.47% from the end of February.

　 4、 Price trend

（1） The trend of foreign cotton price is stronger than that of domestic cotton price

As of March 31, the national cotton price B index was 14800 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton month on month, the main contract of Zheng cotton futures was 13545 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton month on month, the international cotton M index (converted into 1% tariff RMB import cost) was 13195 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton month on month, and the settlement price of ICE cotton futures main contract was 66.83 cents/pound, up 1.58 cents/pound month on month; The difference between internal and external cotton prices is 1605 yuan/ton, which is 161 yuan/ton smaller than that of the previous month.

（2） The trend of domestic yarn is stronger than that of imported yarn

In March 2025, the price of cotton yarn at home and abroad will fall back. As of March 31, China's 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarns were 21025 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton month on month; India's 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarn was 21804 yuan/ton, down 391/ton month on month; Vietnam's 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarns cost 21310 yuan/ton, down 378 yuan/ton month on month; Indonesia 32 ordinary combed pure cotton yarn 21310 yuan/ton, down 378 yuan/ton month on month; Pakistan's 21 ordinary combed pure cotton yarns cost 19527 yuan/ton, down 374 yuan/ton month on month.

（3） Narrow the price difference between yarn and cotton, expand the price difference between cotton and polyester

As of March 31, the price difference of domestic yarn and cotton was 6225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 179 yuan/ton month on month; The price difference of cotton and polyester is 8045 yuan/ton, and the month on month increase is 149 yuan/ton.