Crude Oil Rebound Drive Is Not Strong PTA Price Volatility Is Weak

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic PTA spot market dropped slightly, and the average market price in May 11th was 3381 yuan / ton, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, down 49.54% from the same period last year. Futures market main futures (2009) concussion fell, to close the main futures closed at 3488, compared with the previous trading day fell 22, or 0.63%.

Crude oil fell, PTA bought traders and polyester factories, and spot market sentiment declined, and inventory remained in the storehouse cycle. On the installation side, the start-up load remained at a high level near 92%, and Shanghai Petrochemical plans to enter the repair service in May 16th. At present, Jialong petrochemical, Peng Wei petrochemical, Li Wan Xin materials and Tianjin Petrochemical are still in the parking stage. The factory has a good profit level and the maintenance plan has been postponed.

The downstream polyester market, Qingming and may day dual section stocking and downstream capital production and sales volume, effectively alleviate the high storage pressure, short-term performance of polyester is relatively stable, there is no clear maintenance and restart plan in the factory, a few factories to increase load intention, start at around 84%. At present, the mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have a stable price and a strong wait-and-see mood. The enthusiasm of purchasing is significantly reduced, and the turnover atmosphere is mainly light. Among them, polyester POY (150D/48F) reported 5400-5550 yuan / ton.

The weaving end is the most direct response to the change of terminal demand. The starting load of weaving starts to fall down in late March, and there is a large area of parking and holidays on Qingming Festival. Even after the holiday, the starting rate has picked up slightly, but with the May day suspension, the current operating rate has been reduced to around 40%. At the same time, affected by this public health event, foreign trade enterprises still face many difficulties, such as cancellation or extension of orders, difficulties in signing new orders, and poor logistics. In the 1-4 months of 2020, textile and apparel exports totaled 66 billion 620 million US dollars, down 10%, of which 37 billion 310 million US dollars in textile exports, an increase of 2.9%, and clothing exports 29 billion 310 million US dollars, down 22.3%. In April, the export of respirators and other anti epidemic products, China's textile exports 14 billion 620 million U.S. dollars, a significant increase of 51.06% over the same period last year, clothing exports 6 billion 740 million US dollars, down 27.7%.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the collapse of crude oil demand has led to serious overcapacity of the global crude oil, resulting in tight storage capacity. Although OPEC+ and US crude oil have reduced production plans, the pressure on excess oil is unlikely to ease in the short term. Oil prices are expected to be dominated by low volatility, and the continued rebound is not strong enough. At the same time, at present, there are not many expected repair devices for PTA, and the start-up load is still high, and the pressure of downstream polyester load continues to increase. The pressure of PTA supply is still high, and high inventory is the normal form of PTA. It is estimated that PTA will not get rid of the high value of 4 million tons in 5-6 months. Therefore, a comprehensive view is that the price volatility of PTA is weak and the possibility of adjustment is relatively large.